KEYIR NEWS — A new Rift Valley Institute report by Dr. Biruk Terrefe examines Ethiopia’s evolving maritime strategy and the geopolitical implications of its pursuit of Red Sea access.
The study highlights the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which reportedly grants Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for possible recognition. The report argues that this “port-for-recognition” deal underscores Ethiopia’s desire to overcome dependence on Djibouti and assert itself as a regional power.
Dr. Terrefe notes that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s emerging “Red Sea Doctrine” reflects an existential framing of sea access as vital to Ethiopia’s national security, prosperity, and identity. However, the move has intensified tensions with Somalia and raised regional alarm over Addis Ababa’s ambitions.
The report warns that Ethiopia’s maritime strategy intertwines commercial, military, and political interests—blurring lines between economic integration and securitization—and reshaping the Horn of Africa’s balance of power.
